Currently, 75% of the US and 62% of the UK drive to work*.
Now imagine if that commute looked more like a relaxing session in a first-class airport lounge than a dull and stressful experience in a cramped seat. 🚗🧘
As the automotive industry and EV technology advances, the thought of self-driving cars becomes more of a reality and less of an abstract futuristic concept. CEO and co-founder of Aurora, Chris Urmson believes self-driving vehicles will displace driving and vehicles as we know them will be used solely for pleasure. During our chat in Scotland at one of FF’s events, Chris draws a parallel between the shift from horse transport to motor vehicles to the shift he sees unfolding.
Aurora is an American self-driving vehicle technology company. Its flagship product, the Aurora Driver, is a platform that brings together software, hardware, and data services, to operate passenger vehicles autonomously, light commercial vehicles, and heavy-duty trucks. Aurora is partnered with industry leaders across the transportation ecosystem including Toyota, Uber, Volvo, FedEx, and PACCAR.
* according to a 2022 Statista report https://www.statista.com/chart/25129/gcs-how-the-world-commutes/
00:00:02:07 - 00:00:31:21
Speaker 1
Hello and welcome to Crazy Intel. It's not a podcast about big ideas. I'm your host Michael stuff and an investor at first minute capital. This is a bite sized episode recorded at a Founders Forum event up in Scotland. And I'm speaking to Chris Urmson, the co-founder of Aurora Innovation, a company developing self-driving car technology. I started by asking him what was his big, crazy prediction for the future.
00:00:33:11 - 00:00:34:02
Speaker 2
As we happened.
00:00:34:08 - 00:01:00:03
Speaker 3
Yeah. So for me, my, you know, I've been working on my crazy til it's mad idea for the last 20 years and this was like vehicles that drive themselves. I think today maybe the updated version of that is that we're going to get to a point where people just drive cars for fun and that in the same way that, you know, the force was really how you would get around and it was core to the American way of life.
00:01:00:03 - 00:01:20:14
Speaker 3
And then the automobile came along and displaced it. We're going to see self-driving vehicles displace driving. And while you'll still you know, you'll get in your beautiful vehicle that you've, you know, you pamper and love and take to the track or maybe even drive it on the road. When you do that, because it's yet to get you from A to a as a Ferrari owner would, rather than from A to B.
00:01:21:10 - 00:01:30:20
Speaker 2
What does a car look like if you're not if you're not getting pleasure driving it? If you're not driving it? How does that change the kind of architecture of the car?
00:01:31:16 - 00:01:53:01
Speaker 3
I think one of the most amazing thing that's going to we're going to experience with self-driving vehicles is like, what is it on lock? What are the possibilities, whether it is in the applications where, you know, every time we've seen a big step function in communication or in transportation, we've seen whole new businesses and industries boom. I think that's going to be amazing.
00:01:53:11 - 00:02:21:06
Speaker 3
And then for the physical car itself, it's going to be like for the whole lifetime. For a century, driving a car has been about the experience of the person behind the steering wheel. And so having this moment where you no longer, you know, no longer tethered to the minutia of driving the vehicle, but you can now either, you know, experience the the the the transport, the trip in a new way.
00:02:21:06 - 00:02:43:07
Speaker 3
And I don't even I don't know what that means. You know, I think you'd have to go to, you know, stagecoaches or or trains for some inspiration. But, you know, people will be able to work in these vehicles, will be able to sleep, you know, maybe get better mass transit or, you know, maybe it's not actually mass transit, but it's tailored public transit.
00:02:43:15 - 00:02:46:05
Speaker 3
So I think there's going to be a lot of really exciting things that happen there.
00:02:46:13 - 00:03:02:22
Speaker 2
Do you think it ends up looking like the first class while a nice car ends up looking like the first class lounge of a Virgin Atlantic flight? You know, maybe has a bad cocktail bar. I think. Is that is that. Oh, I imagine it.
00:03:02:23 - 00:03:24:09
Speaker 3
I think I think we'll get there. Yes. I think that that I think that as we get to luxury vehicles of the future, it will it'll start to look like airplane lounges or you know, first class, like, you know, because the experience you're going to have in it is, again, not one tethered to the steering wheel. It's going to be one of how do I want to spend it?
00:03:24:10 - 00:03:44:23
Speaker 3
Is it, you know, beautiful big windows that you look out and enjoy the scenery, but the ability to put a shade down so you can watch a movie, you know, do you have a bed in it? Do you have, you know, a full out desk so that you can be working when you want to? I you know, I think I think it's going to be a new golden age for, you know, experience design in vehicles.
00:03:45:10 - 00:03:59:20
Speaker 2
Yeah. And how when do you imagine a world where driving is only for pleasure? Yeah. Is this. This is ten years. 20 years away. 50 years away.
00:04:00:15 - 00:04:31:05
Speaker 3
So I think driving just for pleasure is somewhere between 20 and 50 years away. I think for many of us, it'll become an option sooner, but we're really kind of gets retired from what people do, I think is a little bit further out. And it's just it's one of those things where there's a real time constant. So, you know, the U.S., the auto fleet, the set of cars on the road is on average 15 years old, which means that if every car that was made today was self-driving, it would basically take 15 years to get to half of them.
00:04:32:03 - 00:04:38:19
Speaker 3
So there's just there's going to be a transition period that's going to take, you know, years of time to go through.
00:04:39:06 - 00:04:45:18
Speaker 2
How long the horses take to. How how long did the end of horses come? Sorry, those.
00:04:46:03 - 00:04:48:12
Speaker 3
Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, from.
00:04:48:12 - 00:04:56:10
Speaker 2
From the invention of the car to people using cars on a map. It wasn't till the sixties. Right. That people really used cars. I think.
00:04:56:10 - 00:05:32:22
Speaker 3
It was. I think it was probably. Yeah. Yeah. Forties and fifties. I would have said probably said forties. So, so yeah. So I actually don't know. It's an interesting question and because the car so we think about we think about the car, the first mass production car was around 1910 for the Model T, but the combustion engine and I see I think was a late 1890s type invention, but people were still using horses to get around into the certainly into the thirties.
00:05:32:22 - 00:05:36:12
Speaker 3
So yeah, I think there's I think, you know, it's going to take some time.
00:05:37:11 - 00:05:46:23
Speaker 2
I, for one, can't wait for my luxury. You know, reading the newspaper. Yeah, because my car drives me around. Thank you so much.
00:05:47:04 - 00:05:47:22
Speaker 3
Oh, it's a pleasure.
00:05:47:22 - 00:05:50:15
Speaker 2
Thank you. Really appreciate it. Really, really kind.